Leadership changes
César Pérez Ruiz, Chief Investment Officer, Pictet Wealth Management.
The S&P 500[i] gained 1% last week (in USD), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq[ii] was up 3.9%. Yet while the November jobs report was seen as enough to ensure a Fed rate cut next week, contributing to a small decline in Treasury yields, the small-cap Russell 2000 index[iii] dropped 1%. The MSCI Asia index rose 2.5%[iv] (in USD), but Chinese equities trailed ahead of important Communist Party economic policy meetings this week. South Korea’s political crisis, sparked by the president’s failed attempt to impose martial law, sent the Kospi[v] down 1% last week (in local currency). Having already discounted the fall of the French government and anticipating an ECB rate cut this week (with more cuts to come), the Euro Stoxx 600[vi] advanced 2% (in euros). Germany’s Dax index[vii] made an impressive 3.9% gain last week. French government bond yields fell. The drop in US Treasury yields meant it was a quiet week for the US dollar, although events in Seoul meant the won dropped against the greenback.
Geopolitics
Bashar al-Assad’s fall from power in Syria changes the balance of power in the Middle East. Iran and Russia have lost influence in favour of Saudia Arabia and Turkey.
Key data
US nonfarm payrolls rose 227,000 in November, rebounding from 36,000 in October. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, while the annual increase in hourly earnings remained steady at 4%. The ISM purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing rose to 48.4 in November from 46.5 in October, while the new orders gauge rose above 50 for the first time in eight months. The ISM PMI for services dropped to 52.1 from 56. Swiss annual inflation rose to 0.7% in November from 0.6% the previous month, in line with expectations. The official PMI for manufacturing in China rose to 50.3 in November from 50.1, while the alternative Caixin PMI rose to a five-month high of 51.5. The Caixin services PMI slowed to 51.5 from 52 and the official one from 50.2 to 50.
[i] Source: Pictet WM AA&MR, Thomson Reuters. Past performance, S&P 500 Composite (net 12-month return in USD): 2019, 31.5%; 2020, 18.4%; 2021, 28.7%; 2022, -18.1%; 2023, 26.3%.
[ii] Source: Pictet WM AA&MR, Thomson Reuters. Past performance, Nasdaq Composite (net 12-month return in USD): 2019, 36.7%; 2020, 44.9%; 2021, 22.2%; 2022, -32.5%; 2023, 44.6%.
[iii] Source: Pictet WM AA&MR, Thomson Reuters. Past performance, Russell 2000 (net 12-month return in USD): 2019, 25.5%; 2020, 20%; 2021, 14.8%; 2022, -20.4%; 2023, 16.9%.
[iv] Source: Pictet WM AA&MR, Thomson Reuters. Past performance, MSCI AC Asia ex JP (net 12-month return in USD): 2019, 18.5%; 2020, 25.4%; 2021, -4.5%; 2022, -19.5%; 2023, 6.3%.
[v] Source: Pictet WM AA&MR, Thomson Reuters. Past performance, KOSPI Composite Index (net 12-month return in South Korean Won): 2019, 7.7%; 2020, 30.8%; 2021, 3.6%; 2022, -24.9%; 2023, 18.7%.
[vi] Source: Pictet WM AA&MR, Thomson Reuters. Past performance, STOXX Europe 600 (net 12-month return in EUR): 2019, 27.6%; 2020, -1.5%; 2021, 25.5%; 2022, -10.1%; 2023, 16.5%.
[vii] Source: Pictet WM AA&MR, Thomson Reuters. Past performance, Germany DAX Index (net 12-month return in EUR): 2019, 25.5%; 2020, 3.5%; 2021, 15.8%; 2022, -12.3%; 2023, 20.3%.
