Peace talks
César Pérez Ruiz, Chief Investment Officer, Pictet Wealth Management.
The S&P 500[i] rose 1.5% last week, coming back to life once inflation and other data had been absorbed. Despite the drumbeat of Trump tariff threats, equity volatility, as measured by the Vix index, went down. But broad indexes outside the US performed better. The Euro Stoxx 600[ii] rose 1.8% last week (in euros), extending its outperformance since late last year, helped in part by speculation about a ceasefire in Ukraine and better-than-expected corporate earnings for Q4. While (some) US tech-related stocks have lost momentum, especially since the DeepSeek announcement, China’s tech sector has helped a rebound in Chinese indexes (the MSCI China[iii] rose 7.1% last week in USD). Government bond yields rose slightly in Europe but declined in the US (on weak retail sales) while Japanese 10-year bond yields rose to 14-year highs. The US dollar retreated against European currencies, signalling new-found optimism about Europe. The weakening dollar and concerns about a global trade war gave gold a further leg up.
Quote of the week
“On trade, I have decided, for purposes of fairness, that I will charge a reciprocal tariff, meaning whatever countries charge the United States of America, we will charge them—no more, no less.”
– Donald Trump, 14 February 2025
Key data
The US consumer price index (CPI) ticked up to an annual rate of 3.0% in January from 2.9% the month before while core CPI rose to 3.3% from 3.2%. US retail sales fell 0.9% in January from the previous month, more than expected, while industrial production increased 0.5%. Industrial production in the euro area declined by 1.1% in December over the previous month and was 1.7% lower than a year before. Japanese GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8% in Q4, well ahead of expectations and up from 1.7% in Q3. Japan’s producer price index rose at an annual 4.2% in January to reach a 20-year month high.
[i] Source: Pictet WM AA&MR, Thomson Reuters. Past performance, S&P 500 Composite (net 12- month return in USD): 2020, 18.4%; 2021, 28.7%; 2022, -18.1%; 2023, 26.3%; 2024, 25%.
[ii] Source: Pictet WM AA&MR, Thomson Reuters. Past performance, STOXX Europe 600 (net 12- month return in EUR): 2020, -1.5%; 2021, 25.5%; 2022, -10.1%; 2023, 16.5%; 2024, 9.5%.
[iii] Source: Pictet WM AA&MR, Thomson Reuters. Past performance, MSCI China (net 12-month return in USD): 2020, 29.7%; 2021, -21.6%; 2022, -21.8%; 2023, -11%; 2024, 19.7%.
